It’s that time of year again, the race that stops the nation and we are in for an excellent Melbourne Cup this year with so many realistic chances. I’m going to preview each runner and give my reasons why each could win or why they won’t. Read to the bottom to get my best bets for the other races.
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MELBOURNE CUP RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW
1. Al Riffa (59kg, barrier 19, ~$9)
Recent form: A classy French-bred six-year-old, Al Riffa arrives off back-to-back wins over 2816m (Irish St Leger, Curragh Cup). He ticks the stamina box handily.
Why he can win: He possesses top-level staying class, handles deep ground, and is ridden by the in-form Mark Zahra for trainer Joseph O’Brien.
Why he might not: The heavy top-weight 59kg is a major burden (no one has done it in decades at the Cup), plus barrier 19 means he may be wide and have to cover ground.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He will win if the early tempo is strong (to stretch the field), he gets a smooth passage from the wide draw, and the track holds up (rather than becoming a slog). If those align, his class can carry him. If he gets stuck wide or the field bunches under a slow pace, he’ll struggle with the weight.
2. Buckaroo (57kg, barrier 12, ~$9.50)
Recent form: The Chris Waller-trained British import has been performing at high level – runner-up in the Cox Plate recently and back in elite company.
Why he can win: Good draw, reasonable weight, has shown speed and stamina; the McEvoy stable believe he’s at a peak.
Why he might not: Still unproven over the full 3200m at Flemington; may need luck in transit; his benchmark performances have been up to 2040-2400m, not two miles.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if the race is run at a genuine clip, he can settle mid-pack with cover, and he unleashes a strong finish once the tempo has dragged. If it’s run slowly and turns into a sprint home, he may be outpaced in the late stages.
3. Arapaho (56.5kg, barrier 15, ~$41)
Recent form: Veteran French stayer (nine-year-old) who has had success at staying trips including a Sydney Cup win.
Why he can win: Proven stamina, thrives when the ground is soft and the pace toughens; big chance if all conditions fall.
Why he might not: Age nine means his best may be behind him; barrier 15 means he could lose ground early; he must lift substantially to outstay younger rivals.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He is a dark horse for a placings spot if he gets a smooth run, the tempo is strong, and it stays wet. But for a win, he’d need others to falter and it to be genuinely ugly—otherwise his comeback may fall short.
4. Vauban (56.5kg, barrier 2, ~$26)
Recent form: French-bred eight-year-old now stabled in Australia with Waterhouse/Bott; has acclimatised and shown recent improvement.
Why he can win: Ideal draw (barrier 2) means he can get a forward position; has proven staying ability and now adapted to local conditions.
Why he might not: He hasn’t shown elite-level finishing power lately; the weight and class of this field may test him; older age may catch up.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he jumps well, lands just behind the speed, avoids traffic, and maintains momentum past the 2400m mark. If he gets stranded wide or has to sprint from too far back, his chance fades.
5. Chevalier Rose (55.5kg, barrier 5, ~$31)
Recent form: Japanese import, eight-year-old, has won over even longer trips (3600m) in Japan.
Why he can win: Big-frame stayer who loves distances; barrier 5 gives a decent jump-up; wet track may suit.
Why he might not: His recent form hasn’t been brilliant at this level; travelling logistics and acclimatisation to Australia may count.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if the early pace is strong, he positions just off the lead, the going is soft, and he clips through the line under minimal pressure. If the tempo is slow or he is sitting too far back, he may lack the acceleration to beat younger, sharper rivals.
6. Presage Nocturne (55.5kg, barrier 9, ~$8.50)
Recent form: Irish stayer finishing 4th in the Caulfield Cup, arriving in excellent form.
Why he can win: Arrives ready, seems to love the staying trip, and barrier 9 is very workable; the betting market respects him as one of the favourites.
Why he might not: Running first time at Flemington in a Melbourne Cup adds some unknown; he must adapt to the Australian tempo and track quirks.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he gets a clean run, sits mid-pack with cover to save ground, and strikes turning for home with a strong burst. If he faces traffic or sits too wide, he may get bogged down in the home straight.
7. Middle Earth (54.5kg, barrier 13, ~$41)
Recent form: British-bred stayer, has a Flemington win and dropping into the weight sweet spot.
Why he can win: Light weight, experience at Flemington, and may improve for this preparation stepping up.
Why he might not: The form has been mixed this campaign; over 3200m at this level still a query.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he lifts for the big day, gets a smooth ride from barrier 13, and the pace breaks open. But if it turns into a sprint or he’s pinned wide, he may be only a place chance.
8. Meydaan (54kg, barrier 22, ~$19)
Recent form: Irish-bred, wide draw, had a solid Caulfield Cup run but wide at final turn.
Why he can win: Light weight, capable staying profile, and if he can navigate from the wide gate he has a chance.
Why he might not: Barrier 22 is very tough in a 24-horse two-mile; will need luck to avoid being shuffled.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he jumps well, gets across, settles mid-to-back with cover, and the pace is strong so wide position doesn’t handicap too heavily. But without pace or if he has to go too wide, his chance is downgraded.
9. Absurde (53.5kg, barrier 4, ~$23)
Recent form: French import, been here before; 5th in last year’s cup and improved this campaign.
Why he can win: Low weight, experienced in the race, draws well in barrier 4—ideal for a stalking trip.
Why he might not: He still needs to lift past his previous best; weight may be fine but class of field and tempo may not suit.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if the pace is sufficiently genuine to stretch the field, he tracks the leaders effectively from barrier 4, and maintains stamina into the home straight. If the race becomes tactical and slow, his finishing punch may not produce top-two.
10. Flatten The Curve (53.5kg, barrier 17, ~$21-26)
Recent form: U.S. bred staying type, won over 3319m in the U.S.; transitioning to Aussie turf.
Why he can win: Genuine stayer, the kind of horse built for 3200m and heavy ground; if conditions favour him he could upset.
Why he might not: Turf form in Australia is limited; barrier 17 means he may get caught wide; adapting to right-hand rail, pace and Aussie style may hinder him.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if the track is soft/heavy, he settles off the pace then finds his rhythm in the straight, and his US staying engine kicks in. Without soft going or if he’s too far off the pace, he may struggle to tackle the class of our homer favourites.
11. Land Legend (53.5kg, barrier 16, ~$71-81)
Recent form: French-bred, Australian trained by Waller, but recent form lacking; 8th last year’s Cup.
Why he can win: Trainer knows how to place them, weight is fine, and last year’s Cup experience counts.
Why he might not: His recent form is ordinary, far too many holes on his form card, and barrier 16 means he’s not advantaged early.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins only if he’s peaking fresh and the race falls away (tempo blows apart) to allow a late-charging outsider to sneak up. Otherwise, he’s more likely a place hope.
12. Smokin’ Romans (53.5kg, barrier 11, ~$71-81)
Recent form: Kiwi-based nine-year-old, 7th in 2022 Melbourne Cup, some staying form.
Why he can win: Experience in the big dance, knows how to stay, barrier 11 is handy.
Why he might not: Age nine and below peak; hasn’t been close to winning in big company lately; may be used for a horseshoe rather than serious win chance.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins on a perfect day—genuine tempo, firm map, he settles kindly and can charge home. But that’s a big “if”; more likely a place roughie.
13. ChangingoftheGuard (53kg, barrier 24, ~$71-81)
Recent form: Irish-bred, decent undersurface record, but worst barrier in the field.
Why he can win: Light weight, may have room to improve in staying trips, and has a good trainer.
Why he might not: Barrier 24 essentially means extra work early; class-edge might not be there; becomes hard to map logically for the win.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins only if the race is extremely runout (tempo high), he gets a good ride to avoid being lost wide, and he relishes heavy ground. Given all that, he is more a speculative exotics hope.
14. Half Yours (53kg, barrier 8, ~$6.50-7.50 favourite)
Recent form: Dominant in the Caulfield Cup, has momentum, local and sharp.
Why he can win: All the building blocks seem aligned: perfect draw, low weight, strong prep, and local familiarity.
Why he might not: The big caveat: he’s never run beyond 2400m. This jump to 3200m is untested in a field of this class and pressure.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he stretches out cleanly past 2400m, settles mid-pack with cover, and unleashes a turn of foot at the 600m mark. If he weakens late or the two-mile test reveals a stamina shortage, he may fade to behind.
15. More Felons (53kg, barrier 23, ~$41)
Recent form: Irish-bred, had injury, training has been solid but form is patchy.
Why he can win: Underrated staying ability and Waller stable prepping well; big chance to surprise if swings the right way.
Why he might not: Barrier 23 is nearly terminal in a field of 24; he has to cover extra ground; inconsistent form issues.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins only if a radical map opens up (earlier pace falls away), he tracks the leaders from the gate, and gets clear inside the last 200m. Without those conditions, he’s more exotics than win chance.
16. Onesmoothoperator (53kg, barrier 6, ~$26)
Recent form: US imported staying type, won Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) earlier; stepping up to 3200m for Cup.
Why he can win: Has staying fitness, barrier 6 is very favourable, weight is well suited, and could attract good ride.
Why he might not: Needs to prove form at this distance and against this class; Aussie stayers have shown he may not have that final kick.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he relaxes early, is ridden with patience, and kicks home strongly from the 400m mark. If he is forced into wide travel or gets into traffic, his chance will be largely compromised.
17. Furthur (52kg, barrier 7, ~$26)
Recent form: 3-year-old (Northern Hemisphere) staying type, won Geoffrey Freer, 2nd Queen’s Vase; light weight.
Why he can win: Weight is a major plus (52kg), progressive stayer, could be peaking; barrier 7 is good.
Why he might not: Young for a 3200m Cup, still learning, and may lack the depth of experience/self-preservation in this circus of a race.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he settles kindly, the map allows cover, he improves in the straight, and he handles the climb in second half strongly. If he gets isolated or doesn’t switch off early, he may find the 3200m and field depth ask too much.
18. Parchment Party (52kg, barrier 3, ~$51-61)
Recent form: American export, won Belmont Gold Cup (2816m) and Birdstone over staying trips. First US-trained horse to attempt Melbourne Cup.
Why he can win: Big staying motor, barrier 3 gives nice position, very light weight for this calibre.
Why he might not: Most form on dirt/US surfaces; turf stayers behaviour can differ; longer travel & acclimation may cost.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he jumps clean, absorbs early tempo, tracks into a midfield position, and unleashes a long-range run into the straight. But if the tempo is slow or he takes ground early, his lack of turf-specialist experience may hamper.
19. Athabascan (51.5kg, barrier 1, ~$81)
Recent form: French-bred, Sydney Cup 2nd, first Cup attempt.
Why he can win: Lightest weight in the field, draws barrier 1 (ideal for leader/rail run), staying form solid.
Why he might not: Big step up in class and distance; his win record is moderate; might struggle under the Australian Cup pace and field strength.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins only if he breaks well, takes a sit inside the lead, saves ground, and the leaders fade badly in the home straight. Otherwise, he’s probably too inexperienced and exposed for the win.
20. Goodie Two Shoes (51.5kg, barrier 20, ~$41)
Recent form: Mare, strong win-rate (13 from 26), has won up to 3419m, though mostly in Europe.
Why she can win: She stays, has winning mental-attitude, draws somewhat awkward but weight is fine; one of the genuine staying-mares in the field.
Why she might not: Barrier 20 is tricky; mares rarely win the Cup; slight question if best against this company.
Mr Pineapple thinks: She wins if she avoids early heat, settles midfield/back, uses the rail run, and the race turns into credible stamina test (e.g., soft/slow). If the run is tactical and the track rides fast, her chance is diminished.
21. River Of Stars (51.5kg, barrier 14, ~$17-18)
Recent form: Chris Waller’s mare, 2nd in Caulfield Cup, 3rd Sydney Cup, proven at staying distances and Australian conditions.
Why she can win: Local stayers love two miles, barrier 14 means middle draw, weight is attractive, form is strong.
Why she might not: Needs a strong tempo to play to her strengths; may lack a devastating split compared to the very top; draw is fine but not ideal.
Mr Pineapple thinks: She wins if the pace heats up, she gets a good position just off the lead, and she is unleashed entering the straight with a gap to exploit. If the race becomes compact or the tempo slow, she could be out-finishing but not fast enough for the win.
22. Royal Supremacy (51kg, barrier 21, ~$31-34)
Recent form: G1 Metropolitan winner, 3rd in Caulfield Cup; lightest weight in the race.
Why he can win: Weight is a real asset, form is solid, Jardine stable know how to place runners; excellent finishing ability.
Why he might not: Barrier 21 again wide; needs luck in transit and a clear run in the straight; may be vulnerable early.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he stays off the pace early (to conserve energy), gets across into a good stalking position, and strikes over the final 300m with a clear path. If he is pinned wide or blocked coming into the straight, his finishing rush may be compromised.
23. Torranzino (51kg, barrier 18, ~$34-35)
Recent form: NZ-bred, won the Geelong Cup which provided the “golden ticket”; stepping up to Cup grade.
Why he can win: Momentum, weight is light, good jockey/stable combo, potential improver for the trip.
Why he might not: Hasn’t yet beaten this level of field; barrier 18 means another wide draw and early pressure.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he jumps clean, allows the pace to do the hard work up front, sits midfield/back in cover, and uses the straight to climb into the top 3. If he gets shuffled back early or the draw cost him momentum, he may be a place only.
24. Valiant King (51kg, barrier 10, ~$8.00)
Recent form: Bart Cummings winner (2520m), 3rd in Caulfield Cup, by Chris Waller.
Why he can win: Excellent weight, draw, form, distance profile; everything seems aligned.
Why he might not: He’s still relatively unproven at the full 3200m – while the trip suits in theory, this level demands supreme stamina; the market may be underestimating others.
Mr Pineapple thinks: He wins if he settles just off the pace, saves ground through the long straight, and has enough left at the 300m mark to surge. If the early section is hard and he spends too much energy, or if a heavy track saps his turn of foot, he could be passed late.
My Final Prediction – Top 4
1st: Al Riffa $7
2nd: Presage Nocturne $8.50
3rd: Absurde $19
4th: Half Yours $7.50
BEST BETS @ FLEMINGTON
Race 2 – Quello Dorato $23/$6
Race 4 – Aleppo Pine $6.50/$2.25
Race 8 – Navy Pilot $6.50/$2.50
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