We had a profitable Melbourne Cup Day with 4 winners from the 10 races and followed up on Wednesday with 2 winners & a 2nd from 4 tips.
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OAKS DAY PREVIEW & TIPS
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Race 1 – TCL Trophy (1700m)
Early in the day and the rail rarely plays tricky this meeting. Most runners are stepping beyond 1400m for the first time this prep, so fitness and the map matter here.
Win Bet: Full Hao – J-Mac on board and maps to get a midfield run out of trouble. Happy to play around the favourite who’s drawn wide.
Each-Way Roughie: Empire of Pain – Facing its toughest race to date but will be up on speed and if there is any leader bias could finish in the top 3 at a nice price
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Race 2 – Subzero Handicap (1400m)
Grey horses only — always a fan favourite. This sets up as a genuine tempo race with a few wanting to roll forward.
Win Bet: Statuario — Back in grade, capable of box-seating and sprinting hard.
Each-Way Roughie: Le Zebra – Damien Lane on is a tick, will improve 2nd up and will get an economical run on the rails, if it gets any luck and the gaps open in the straight it’s over the odds at $9
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Race 3 – Inglis Bracelet (1600m – Fillies & Mares)
Good money race for mares who don’t often get black type chances. Inside gates can be golden over the mile.
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Race 6 – Melbourne Cup Carnival Country Final (1600m)
Always a capacity field and often produces big-priced winners because of traffic issues.
Win Bet – Keane Enuff – Won well last start and will handle the track, is drawn well and overs at $15-1
Best Eachway Roughie – Ruakaka Raider – Another coming in off a good win, Flemington will suit with plenty of straight to catch the leaders and should do little work throughout from barrier 3, is great value at $21/$5.50
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Race 7 – Red Roses Stakes (1100m – 3YO Fillies)
Lightning-style sprint down the straight. Inside horses will look for cover to avoid going too early.
Win Bet – Point Barrow – Building a nice record and I always like backmarkers in these races. Will be hitting the line strongly and is one of my best bets of the day
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Race 8 – Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) – FEATURE RACE
This race is traditionally won by fillies who:
• Have already run well over 2000m
• Relax early and build momentum before the turn
• Possess stamina, not speed
Most form lines funnel through the Wakeful Stakes, which historically is the strongest Oaks lead-in. The tempo here looks moderate early — only a couple of genuine leaders — meaning positioning and timing the move will matter more than raw strength.
⭐ Mr Pineapple’s Strategy
Instead of the market favourite, we’re targeting the filly who will stay all day and be charging late.
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✅ WIN BET — Strictly Business
This filly screams Oaks horse:
• Strongest staying profile of the field
• Huge late closing sectionals in her Wakeful lead-up
• Actually improved through the line last start, suggesting 2500m is ideal
She’ll be midfield with cover and be the one powering over the top of them late.
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💣 Best Each-Way Roughie — Classic Gem (Paying overs)
Forget the price — look at the pattern:
• Keeps improving with more distance
• Trainer has targeted this race all prep
• Maps to settle one-off the fence and stalk the right horses
This is the filly that could blow the exotics wide open.
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⚠ Main Dangers
• Getta Good Feeling — Wakeful → Oaks route, perfect map, biggest threat
• The Pearls — Deep staying pedigree, will be the strongest late if they overcook the tempo
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📌 Mr Pineapple’s Betting Plays
• Win Bet: Strictly Business
• Each-Way (Value): Classic Gem
• Exotic Play:
• Exacta: Strictly Business → (Getta Good Feeling / The Pearls / Classic Gem)
• Trifecta: Strictly Business / Getta Good Feeling / Classic Gem / The Pearls
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Race 9 – Century Stakes (1000m)
Fast and furious — this is made for a horse that handles high pressure.
Win Bet – Rey Magnerio – Massive win 1st up and Flemington suits, will be hitting the line strongly and hard to beat again
Best Eachway Roughie – Trembles – Toughest race to date but will put itself up on speed and has had early support in the market, value at $11/$3.30
